Rumours rated: Ozil, Sanchez to Manchester; Lemar to Arsenal
With the transfer window open, David Amoyal sorts through the speculation and rates how likely the rumoured moves are to take place.
Mesut Ozil to Manchester United in summer: 45 percent
There's a good chance Alexis Sanchez will be sold this month, but Arsenal's other big name with an expiring contract will almost certainly finish the season at the Emirates. Come summer, though, the odds of seeing him at Old Trafford will increase since Ozil prefers to stay in the Premier League, especially after Barcelona signing Philippe Coutinho made the Camp Nou a less likely destination. Ozil has been linked to Juventus and Inter, but a move to Serie A is unlikely given his wage demands.
Faouzi Ghoulam to Manchester United: 15 percent
While it's true that Ghoulam has established himself as one of the best left-backs in Europe this season and has a 40 million euro exit clause, he's still recovering from a torn ACL and is not expected to return until late February. Meanwhile, Napoli have gone all out to keep their top players in an effort to win Serie A. Considering that Maurizio Sarri's team are currently in first place, it's unlikely Ghoulam would want to leave before the season ends.
Alexis Sanchez to Manchester City: 35 percent in January, 85 percent in summer
While there was interest from Paris Saint-Germain and Bayern Munich, City have offered Sanchez a massive signing bonus to lock him into a multi-year deal. The move was supposed to take place in the summer, but a recent injury to Gabriel Jesus has opened the door to a potential arrival in January; Arsenal will have to decide if accepting a transfer fee to use towards signing a replacement is worth it, compared to seeing the former Barcelona striker leave for free at the end of the season.
Thomas Lemar to Arsenal: 25 percent
The Gunners almost signed the 22-year-old winger at the end of the summer and would have more urgency were Sanchez to leave. On the flip side, Monaco are in position to qualify for next season's Champions League and their vice president Vadim Vasilyev said in December that Lemar would finish the season in Ligue 1. But manager Leonardo Jardim has left the door open to a potential January move and, considering Liverpool and Chelsea could join Arsenal in the race, Lemar's price could continue to rise.
Kevin Strootman to Liverpool: 25 percent
Strootman has struggled this season and, with the emergence of Lorenzo Pellegrini, could be expendable, especially if a foreign club is willing to pay his 45 million euro exit clause, which would also keep him away from Juventus. Roma are considering a new cycle with younger players and Liverpool could take advantage by reuniting Mohamed Salah with one of his former teammates. At the moment there is no confirmations on the Anfield club's interest but this is a negotiation that could take off quickly.
Antonio Conte to Paris Saint-Germain in summer: 50 percent
Unai Emery has not convinced the French club's owners, who are looking for a big-name manager to lead their project. By accepting the job, Conte would have more flexibility in the transfer market while being able to focus on winning the Champions League, a competition in which he has a mixed record. But it's not his only possible destination if he does leave Chelsea: He could also be in contention for a return to the Italian national team job.
Yerry Mina to Barcelona: 65 percent
After signing Philippe Coutinho, Barca want to also reinforce Ernesto Valverde's defence, especially with Javier Mascherano possibly heading to China before the window closes. The Camp Nou club are set to complete a deal to sign the 23-year-old Palmeiras center-back; they have already agreed to terms with the Brazilian club for a fee of around 12 million euro and are finalizing details with Mina's camp on the player's wages.
Andre Schurrle to Inter: 25 percent
After a disappointing first half to the season at Borussia Dortmund, Schurrle has been offered to Inter, who are in dire need of another creative player. However, despite being able to acquire him on loan, the Italian club prefer to wait and see if other targets, such as Simone Verdi, Ramires or Gerard Deulofeu, can be acquired while respecting their Financial Fair Play parameters.
Gerard Deulofeu to Serie A: 60 percent
Coutinho's arrival has made the former Everton winger expandable and Deulofeu would welcome a return to Italy. He made an impact during a loan spell at Milan last year and the rossoneri have interest, as do Inter, though a move would have to be a loan deal to get around Financial Fair Play restrictions. Deulofeu is also on Napoli's radar as an alternative to Simone Verdi and he could also be fit at Roma, who are still looking for Mohamed Salah's replacement.
Andre Silva to China: 15 percent
The Portuguese striker has been prolific against mediocre competition in the Europa League but has yet to score in Serie A. But Milan invested heavily to acquire him from Porto and, while they received a substantial offer from China that would see them break even, they are committed to seeing what he can do under new manager Gennaro Gattuso, who has said he'd like to give Silva more consistent playing time.
David covers transfer news for ESPN FC and works for Gianluca Di Marzio's website. Twitter: @DavidAmoyal.